Population projections are based on past trends and assumptions about changes in the components that drive population change. These components include births, deaths and migration (both within the UK and internationally). Population forecasts can also incorporate housing data to align projected population growth with the number of homes available.
There are two alternative datasets available for assessing future population change. These are explained below, alongside the key differences between them:
- Office for National Statistics (ONS) Subnational Population Projections (SNPP)
- Oxfordshire County Council’s housing-led forecasts
ONS subnational population projections
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produces Subnational Population Projections (SNPPs). The latest version is the 2022-based SNPP, which was published in June 2025. The next update is expected in 2028. These projections are produced at district council level by single year of age and sex.
The projections start with the latest Mid-Year Estimates (MYEs) and apply assumptions about births, deaths and migration to project the population forward annually. For the full methodology, see the ONS methodology page
The dataset is available through the Oxfordshire Data Hub data explorer and the ONS NOMIS service.
Oxfordshire County Council housing-led forecasts
Oxfordshire County Council produces its own population forecasts annually. While these forecasts are similar to the ONS SNPPs, they are produced for smaller geographic areas and explicitly incorporate planned housing development. The model follows the same general methodology as the SNPP but includes an additional step at the end of each projection year to ensure that sufficient housing stock is available to accommodate the projected population. For full details of the methodology, please see the methodology page.
The latest version of the Oxfordshire forecasts was published in August 2026 and is based on the 2024 Mid-Year Estimates (see the methodology page for details of all data sources). The dashboard below presents the Oxfordshire housing-led forecasts at district level alongside the ONS projections. Small-area projections can be viewed on the Future MSOA Dashboard page.
An accompanying article explaining the forecasts can be found here, and this Excel file provides the data at county, district and MSOA level.
The table below summarises when each population projection model should be used.
| Variable | ONS Subnational Population Projections (SNPPs) | Oxfordshire County Council Housing-led Forecasts |
|---|---|---|
| Geographic coverage | Districts, counties and England | Oxfordshire MSOAs, districts and the county |
| Time period | 25 years | 9 years (limited by the housing supply datasets) |
| New housing | Implicitly reflected through historical migration trends, which are influenced by past housebuilding | Explicitly incorporates population growth arising from housing development identified in Local Plans |
| Base Population | Latest ONS Mid-Year Estimate (MYE) | Latest ONS Mid-Year Estimate (MYE) |
| Recommended uses | Compare Oxfordshire with areas outside the county. Returns to central government where standardised population projections are required. | Understand local population growth and future service demand. Examine population change at smaller geographies (MSOAs). |
Previous publications
Oxfordshire County Council housing-led forecasts: