Introduction
Oxfordshire County Council (OCC) produces annual housing-led population forecasts to support planning for school places, social care and other services. These differ from the population projections provided by ONS in that they:
- Provide estimates of population change at a small area level (Middle Layer Super Output Areas, 87 in Oxfordshire).
- Take account of the predicted increase in housing across Oxfordshire based on planned district housing trajectories.
It is important to note that housebuilding rates are an input to the model, and the outputs reflect the expected population if the planned level of housebuilding takes place. The forecasts, therefore, are not indicative of housing need, and should not be used or interpreted as such.
The methodology and data sources for this year’s forecasts can be found on the Methodology page. The dataset can be found in this Excel file.
Key messages
- Oxfordshire’s population is forecast to grow from 763,218 in 2024 to 825,470 in 2033, an increase of 62,252 people (8%). This is lower growth than the last decade (12%).
- The population aged 65 and over is projected to increase by 24%, from 139,999 to 173,428, representing the fastest growth of any age group. The working-age population is projected to increase by 8%, while the population aged under 18 is projected to decrease by 5%.
- Vale of White Horse shows the largest absolute growth, increasing by 18,912 people (13%).
- The largest forecast increases at smaller areas occur in MSOAs containing significant housing developments.
Table of Contents
- Introduction
- Key messages
- What the forecasts show
- Links
What the forecasts show
Age groups
Oxfordshire’s population is forecast to grow from 763,218 in 2024 to 825,470 in 2033. This is an increase of 62,252 people (8%). This is lower than the population growth recorded over the previous 10 years (12%).
- The population aged under 18 is forecast to increase from 156,647 in 2024 to 158,252 in 2025, before declining to 148,260 by 2033.
- The working-age population (aged 18 to 64) is forecast to increase from 466,572 in 2024 to 503,782 in 2033.
- Older people aged 65 and over show the largest percentage increase, rising by 24% from 139,999 in 2024 to 173,428 in 2033.
| Age band | 2024 | 2033 | change | Percentage change |
| Under 18s | 156,647 | 148,260 | -8,387 | -5% |
| Working age (18-64) | 466,572 | 503,782 | 37,210 | 8% |
| Older people (65+) | 139,999 | 173,428 | 33,429 | 24% |
| All ages | 763,218 | 825,470 | 62,252 | 8% |
Figure 1 below shows how the Oxfordshire housing-led population forecasts compare with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) population projections (SNPP) and historical mid-year population estimates (MYEs). For the total population, all three datasets show similar trends. The OCC 2024 figure does not match the MYE figure because the ONS revised the estimate after the OCC forecasts were produced. Differences within individual age groups reflect the use of newer data and methodological differences.
Figure 1: Forecast population change by district across Oxfordshire
Cherwell
Cherwell’s population is forecast to increase from 170,426 in 2024 to 187,544 in 2033, an increase of 17,118 people (10%). Growth is broadly linear, although the rate of increase slows slightly in 2026.
The population aged under 18 follows the Oxfordshire-wide trend, increasing from 36,720 in 2024 to 37,179 in 2025 before declining to 35,680 by 2033.
The working-age population shows a slower rate of growth initially, increasing from 103,497 in 2024 to 104,245 in 2026 before rising more rapidly to 113,522 by 2033.
The older population increases throughout the forecast period, from 30,209 in 2024 to 38,342 in 2033.
Oxford
Oxford’s population is forecast to increase from 166,034 in 2024 to 172,423 in 2033, an increase of 6,389 people (3.8%). Growth occurs in two stages, with a slower increase up to 2028, followed by a faster rate of growth from 2029 onwards
The population aged under 18 shows little change between 2024 (30,292) and 2025 (30,374), before declining to 27,113 by 2033.
The working-age population increases more slowly from 115,732 in 2024 to 117,150 in 2028, before growing more rapidly to 121,242 by 2033.
The older population increases steadily by 4,059 people, from 20,010 in 2024 to 24,069 in 2033.
South Oxfordshire
South Oxfordshire is forecast to continue its long-term trend of population growth with an increase of 16,827 people or 11% from 156,470 in 2024 to 173,297 in 2033.
The population aged under 18 follows a similar pattern to other districts, increasing slightly from 32,332 in 2024 to 32,483 in 2025 before declining to 31,672 by 2033.
Both the working-age and older populations are forecast to increase steadily over the period. The working-age population rises from 91,114 in 2024 to 100,415 in 2033, while the older population increases from 33,024 to 41,210.
Vale of White Horse
Vale of White Horse is forecast to continue growing, although at a slower rate (13%) than in the previous ten years (18%). The population is forecast to increase from 149,347 in 2024 to 168,259 in 2033, an increase of 18,912 people.
The population aged under 18 follows a similar pattern to other districts, increasing from 33,027 in 2024 to 34,000 in 2025 before declining to 32,783 by 2033.
The working-age population is forecast to increase steadily from 88,359 in 2024 to 101,320 in 2033.
The older population is forecast to increase from 29,781 in 2024 to 36,299 in 2033.
West Oxfordshire
West Oxfordshire’s population is forecast to remain broadly stable until 2030, increasing only slightly from 120,941 in 2024 to 121,151 in 2030, before rising to 123,947 by 2033.
The population aged under 18 is forecast to decline from 24,276 in 2024 to 21,011 in 2033.
The working-age population is forecast to decline from 69,690 in 2024 to 68,122 in 2030 before increasing to 69,428 by 2033, which remains slightly below the 2024 level.
The older population is the only age group forecast to grow over the period, increasing from 26,975 in 2024 to 33,508 in 2033.
Small areas
The forecasts are also available at Middle Layer Super Output Area (MSOA) level. There are 87 MSOAs in Oxfordshire, each with an average population of approximately 8,800 residents.
Table 2 shows the five MSOAs with the largest forecast increases in population between 2024 and 2033. The table is sorted by absolute population increase. The same five MSOAs also have the highest percentage growth, although in a different order (Begbroke, Beckley, South Wantage, Grove and Caversfield). All of these areas contain major housing developments.
| MSOA | District | Increase in population | Percentage increase | Areas of new housing |
| South Wantage, Harwell & Blewbury | Vale of White Horse | 6,853 | 46% | Great Western Park/ Valley Park near Harwell |
| Begbroke, Yarnton and Water Eaton | Cherwell | 5,967 | 85% | Land near A44 |
| Grove | Vale of White Horse | 4,909 | 46% | Grove airfield |
| Caversfield, Ambrosden & Fringford | Cherwell | 4,760 | 38% | Graven Hill and North West Bicester |
| Beckley & Horspath | South Oxfordshire | 4,399 | 73% | North of Barton, Oxford and at Wheatley Campus |
Figure 2: OCC population forecasts for small areas
Links
The Methodology page explains the model and the data sources used.
The Excel spreadsheet includes forecast data by district and MSOA.
The future population page includes a dashboard of the data and links to other population projections.