Introduction
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the annual update to the mid-year population estimates (MYE) on 29th July 2026. This update adds the 2025 mid-year data and revises the 2022 to 2024 figures. the dataset can be found on NOMIS.
This article discusses the Oxfordshire data. It explains the latest population estimates, changes since last year and the reasons for those changes, the uncertainty associated with the estimates, and migration flows to and from other parts of the UK.
Key messages
- Oxfordshire’s population grew by 4,708 people (0.6%) between 2024 and 2025, reaching 769,831 residents.
- Population growth has slowed significantly, driven by a sharp reduction in net international migration.
- Vale of White Horse recorded the fastest growth of any Oxfordshire district, increasing by 2,796 people (1.9%).
- Oxford City was the only district to see a population decline, with the population falling by 1,887 people (-1.1%), mainly due to the reduction in net international migration.
- Internal migration remained the largest driver of population change across Oxfordshire, with movement between Oxfordshire districts and neighbouring authorities continuing to shape population growth patterns.
Table of contents
Population
Oxfordshire has grown by 4,708 people between the mid-years of 2024 and 2025. This is an increase of 0.6% compared to an England and Wales increase of 0.4%. This is the lowest level of population growth since the current methodology was introduced in 2012 and is approximately half the average annual increase over that period.
The district council in Oxfordshire with the largest growth was Vale of White Horse with an increase of 2,796 people or 1.9% population growth. Oxford City’s population decreased by 1,887 people to 165,940 in 2025, representing a 1.1% reduction in the total population. The other three district councils all experienced population growth of between 0.5% and 1.1%. The reasons for this change are explained in the council sections below.
Figure 1: Population trend by Council
| Area | 2025 population | Change since last year | Percentage change in the last year | 95% confidence interval | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxfordshire | 769,831 | 4,708 | 0.6% | N/A | Internal migration |
| Cherwell | 172,178 | 1,444 | 0.8% | 4,048 | Internal migration |
| Oxford | 165,940 | -1,887 | -1.1% | 32,789 | Net outflow to rest of UK |
| South Oxfordshire | 158,084 | 1,769 | 1.1% | 5,219 | Internal migration |
| Vale of White Horse | 152,217 | 2,796 | 1.9% | 5,934 | Internal migration |
| West Oxfordshire | 121,412 | 586 | 0.5% | 4,233 | Internal migration |
Oxfordshire
Oxfordshire grew by 4,708 people between mid-2024 and mid-2025. This is an increase of 0.6% compared to an England and Wales increase of 0.4%. This is the lowest level of population growth since the current methodology began in 2012 and is half the average increase over that time. The median age for Oxfordshire is now 40.2 years old.
In terms of the reasons for population change, net internal migration (within the UK) was the largest component of change at an increase of 2,187 people. This was followed closely by net international migration, at 1,974 people. This represents a reduction of about three quarters of the 2024 net international migration figure (8,455) and is in line with the national trend. This is the second-lowest level since 2012, with only 2020 recording a lower figure, most likely due to COVID-19 travel restrictions. Natural change (Births and Deaths) was 939, with 7,083 births and 6,144 deaths. Births are the lowest level in the 14-year trend, this reflects the current lowering birth rate as people are delaying parenthood to later in life. Other change (which includes changes related to armed forces personnel and prisoners) reduced the population by 392 people.
Cherwell
Cherwell district council population grew by 1,444 from 170,734 in 2024 to 172,178 in 2025. This represents an increase of 0.8%, which is higher than the Oxfordshire-wide increase of 0.6%.
The component of changes for the population increase show net internal migration accounted for around half of the increase with 725 people moving between Cherwell and the rest of the UK. This is about half the average since 2019. Natural change was the second-largest component, at 403 people, with 1,759 births and 1,356 deaths. Net international migration saw an increase of 292, This reflects lower levels of international migration, returning towards pre-COVID and pre-Brexit patterns.
Oxford
Oxford City Population reduced by 1,887 from 167,827 in 2024 to 165,940 in 2025. This is a reduction of 1.1% of the population. This is the largest population reduction since 2012 with the only other two years with reduction being 2019 and 2020 during COVID.
The main contributor to the population change in 2025 was net internal migration at -3,499, this is in line with changes seen in previous years. The second largest change was net international migration at +1,202 people, This is around one-fifth of the levels seen in most years since 2021 but is in line with pre-COVID years. The remaining change is due to natural change at 437 people, with 1,419 births and 982 deaths. This is consistent with the pattern observed since 2020 as births remain lower than pre 2020 while deaths remain about the same.
South Oxfordshire
South Oxfordshire’s Population was 158,084 in 2025 an increase of 1,769 from 156,315 in the previous year. The percentage change was 1.1%. This is lower than the last two years at 1.5%.
The increase in the population is due to net internal migration as people move from other parts of the UK, with a net population increase of 2,023 people (1.3%). Natural change is near zero at -12 with 1,407 births and 1,419 deaths. Net international migration saw a fall of 102 people (-0.1%). This is due to a lower number of people arriving from abroad.
Vale of White Horse
Vale of White Horse area has seen a growth of 2,796 people in the last year going from 149,421 in 2024 to 152,217 in 2025. This is a 1.9% population increase in the last year and is lower than the previous three years, which averaged 2.3%.
Net internal migration is the largest driver for the population increase as a net 2,253 people move from other parts of UK. This is by far the largest component at 1.5% of the 1.9% population increase. Net international migration was 420 in the last year and follows the national trend of being a lot lower than the years before. Natural change was the smallest of the three main change components with 244, with 1,489 births and 1,245 deaths.
West Oxfordshire
West Oxfordshire’s population in 2025 was 121,412 people. This is an increase of 586 people from the revised 2024 of 120,826. This represents a 0.5% increase in the last year and is lower than the average growth rate of 1.6% recorded over the previous three years.
Net internal migration remains the main component of change at 659 but is a lot lower than other years since 2020 which averaged 1,606. Net international migration was 162 which is lower than the years before as less people are arriving (659 vs 1,200 to 1,600) while people leaving are about the same at about 600. Natural change had a negative impact on the population growth as there were 1,009 births compared with 1,142 deaths, resulting in a net change of -133 people
Components of change
The mid-estimates also include the components of change for the population change between years. Figure 2 below shows the components of change by council and year. The analysis of the components is included in the council sections below. The components of change are:
- Births: the number of births in the area
- Deaths: the number of deaths in the area
- Internal migration: people moving in or out of the council area to other parts of the UK
- International migration: people moving to or from outside the UK
- Special change: movements of UK and foreign armed forces personnel and prison populations.
- Other: changes that do not fit into the other categories.
Figure 2: Components of change
Uncertainty
New to this year’s mid-year estimates is the inclusion of uncertainty measures in the form of 95% confidence intervals.
Oxford has the largest confidence interval at approximately ±32,000 people, this is due to higher population churn. The other district councils have confidence intervals ranging from approximately ±4,000 to ±6,000 people.
Figure 3: Uncertainty by district council
Revision
Population estimates for Oxfordshire from 2022 to 2024 have been revised following the availability of updated information. The mid-2024 estimate was revised upwards from 763,218 to 765,123 an increase of 1,905 people. The mid-2023 estimate was revised upwards by 2,145 people, while the mid-2022 estimate was revised upwards by 1,150 people. Figure 4 below shows the revisions for each district council and highlights the largest change in Oxford, reflecting its highly mobile population.
Figure 4: Revisions of mid-year estimates population by council and year
Internal migration
The ONS also published as part of the dataset internal migration in and out of an area by the area people are moving from or to.
Table 2 and the left hand visual of figure 5 below shows the most common origin council for people moving into each Oxfordshire district council. The table also includes the number of people moving in and the percentage of all movers arriving from other parts of the UK. For the top 5 origin councils for each of the 5 district council below, (25 cell in total):
- 16 are other Oxfordshire district councils. Any Oxfordshire councils not shown in the top 5 for that council still appears within the top eight origins (see figure 5).
- 8 councils are Oxfordshire’s neighbours.
- The remaining entry reflects people moving from Cambridge to Oxford.
Figure 5: Sankey chart of top ten internal migration by council
Vale of White Horse has the highest proportion of movers arriving from a single area, with nearly one in five incoming movers coming from Oxford. Oxford is the most common origin for movers into the other Oxfordshire districts. The exception is South Oxfordshire, where Buckinghamshire ranks first and Oxford second.
| Arriving Council | Most common | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| Cherwell | Oxford 1415 13.5% | West Northamptonshire 742 7.1% | Buckinghamshire 613 5.9% | West Oxfordshire 570 5.5% | Vale of White Horse 385 3.7% |
| Oxford | Vale of White Horse 826 4.1% | Cherwell 646 3.2% | Cambridge 565 2.8% | South Oxfordshire 532 2.6% | Buckinghamshire 530 2.6% |
| South Oxfordshire | Buckinghamshire 1324 11.7% | Oxford 1037 9.1% | Vale of White Horse 029 9.1% | Reading 685 6.0% | West Berkshire 394 3.5% |
| Vale of White Horse | Oxford 2157 18.6% | South Oxfordshire 1299 11.2% | West Oxfordshire 467 4.0% | Swindon 413 3.6% | Cherwell 392 3.4% |
| West Oxfordshire | Oxford 709 10.1% | Cherwell 655 9.4% | Vale of White Horse 535 7.7% | Cotswold 285 4.1% | South Oxfordshire 227 3.2% |
Table 3 and the right hand side of figure 5 shows the destinations of people leaving Oxfordshire district councils to move elsewhere within the UK. Most of the Oxfordshire Councils are similar to people arriving which shows internal migration flows are generally bidirectional. For any changes in Councils the council that has ranked down is within the top 7 and is replaced by a council who was in the top 7 for people arriving.
| Leaving Council | Most common | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| Cherwell | West Northamptonshire 954 9.8% | West Oxfordshire 655 6.8% | Oxford 646 6.7% | Buckinghamshire 489 5.0% | Stratford-on-Avon 483 5.0% |
| Oxford | Vale of White Horse 2157 9.1% | Cherwell 1415 5.9% | South Oxfordshire 1037 4.4% | West Oxfordshire 709 3.0% | Cambridge 549 2.3% |
| South | Vale of White Horse 1299 13.9% | Buckinghamshire 761 8.1% | Oxford 532 5.7% | West Berkshire 311 3.3% | Cherwell 301 3.2% |
| Vale | South Oxfordshire 1029 11.0% | Oxford 826 8.8% | West Oxfordshire 535 5.7% | Cherwell 385 4.1% | Swindon 352 3.8% |
| West | Cherwell 570 9.0% | Vale of White Horse 467 7.4% | Oxford 335 5.3% | Cotswold 316 5.0% | Bristol, City of 153 2.4% |
Figure 5 below shows the top ten councils people move from and to for Oxfordshire district councils. Councils with a grey box are Oxfordshire neighbours, White box councils are not Oxfordshire neighbours.
Glossary
- Births: the number of births in the area
- Deaths: the number of deaths in the area
- Confidence interval: range of values a estimated measure is likely to fall within. a confidence level of 95% means the actual value should be within the range 95% of the time.
- Internal migration: people moving in or out of the council area to other parts of the UK
- International migration: people moving to or from outside the UK
- Mid-year estimates (MYE): The official estimate of the resident population at 30 June each year, produced by the ONS
- Natural change: changes of population caused by births and deaths
- Net migration: the difference between the number people moving into an area compared to the number moving out. a positive net migration means move people have moved than out.
- Other components of change: changes that do not fit into the other categories
- Special component of change: movements of UK and foreign armed forces personnel and prison populations.
- Population churn: the ratio of people moving in or out of the area compared to its total population
Links
ONS blog, Keeping pace with population change | National Statistical
ONS Bulletin, Population estimates for England and Wales – Office for National Statistics
Internal migration by council, Internal migration in England and Wales – Office for National Statistics